2025 MPR War Simulator

Simulate real-world war outcomes between countries by using MPR’s 2025 military simulator to see who wins and why

Who Would Likely Win?



Outcome Probability
Select both countries and click Compare or Run Monte Carlo.

🏆 Attacker Strategic ≥70%, 🪖 Attacker Tactical 60–69%, 🪖 Defender Tactical 45–59%, 🏆 Defender Strategic <45%.
🤝 If the Defender is in the stalemate list, the match returns auto‑stalemate (no probabilities shown).

🧠 Behind the Sim: From Ancient Battlefields to Modern MPR Scores

Every time you run our War Outcome Simulator, you’re tapping into centuries of strategic wisdom and hard-won combat data. Here’s how it all comes together:

  • 1.
    Conflict Archives & Flash Lessons
    We’ve recorded every major engagement—from Megiddo to modern skirmishes—and distilled them into “Flash Lessons” (e.g. Surprise March, Terrain Denial Breached). These tactical insights form the building blocks of our sim.
  • 2.
    Doctrine, Strategy & Tactics
    Flash Lessons map into our Doctrine Library—offensive, defensive, combined-arms, asymmetric, and more—so your chosen nations’ historical doctrine drives how they fight in the simulation.
  • 3.
    114-Factor Combat Profiles
    Each country’s MPR score is the sum of 114 weighted factors drawn from the flash lessons—manpower, firepower, logistics, alliances, terrain expertise, cyber capacity, morale, and more—normalized and adjusted for real-world context. Z-score indicates how many standard deviations a nation’s MPR score sits above or below the global mean.
  • 4.
    Simulation Engine
    • Z-Score Comparison uses statistical difference of z-scores to give a quick win probability.
    • Monte Carlo Trials add “fog of war” randomness across thousands of simulated clashes for a detailed probability curve.
  • 5.
    Translating Probabilities
    We convert win-percentages into four clear outcomes using thresholds drawn from our simulations and historic Flash Lessons.

🏅 Victory Condition Thresholds

  • 🏆
    Strategic Offensive Victory
    Attacker win-ratio ≥ 70%
  • 🪖
    Tactical Offensive Victory
    Attacker win-ratio 60–69%
  • 🛡️
    Defender Tactical Victory
    Attacker win-ratio 45–59%
  • 🏆
    Defender Strategic Victory
    Attacker win-ratio < 45%

    • 🏅 Victory Condition Definitions

    • 🏆
      Strategic Offensive Victory
      The attacker decisively overpowers the defender, winning at least 70% of engagements—enough to secure sustained momentum, occupy key objectives and dictate post-conflict conditions.
    • 🪖
      Tactical Offensive Victory
      The attacker achieves localized successes in 60–69% of simulations—gaining battlefield advantages and inflicting significant losses, but without fully exploiting strategic depth.
    • 🛡️
      Defender Tactical Victory
      The defender holds firm in 45–59% of clashes—blunting the attacker’s advance and preserving core positions, though unable to force a counteroffensive.
    • 🏆
      Defender Strategic Victory
      The defender repels the majority of attacks, winning over 55% of simulations—or equivalently, the attacker wins less than 45%—ensuring the threat is neutralized and deterrence maintained.